Want more wars? Vote Johnny ‘shoot ‘em down’ McCain

Let’s be clear: Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili started this particular outbreak of violence. On the night of Aug. 7, Saakashvili ordered an artillery barrage against Tskhinvali, in South Ossetia, and sent an armored column to occupy the town, killing a number of Russian peacekeepers. As a result of a three-day battle Tskhinvali was in smoking ruins and thousands of people fled. However Russian claims of genocide appear to have been exaggerated.

The big question is Why? Was Saakashvili under the impression that NATO or the US military would intervene if Russia fought back? It seems hard to imagine that he would have invaded South Ossetia if he did not think he had American backing. How could he have had that idea?

Well now ... joint US-Georgian military exercises ended just hours before Georgian troops moved into the province. A senior Bush administration official acknowledged that “it’s possible that Georgians may have confused the cheerleading from Washington with something else.”

And the 'confusing cheerleading' goes back longer than that. The US foreign policy teams have crammed NATO expansion down the Russians’ throats since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The West has expanded military alliances up to Russian borders, and assumed that Russia would do nothing about it.

A Russian perspective
Former Soviet leader Mikhael Gorbachev points out that Russia has long been told to simply accept the facts on a number of issues:
On the independence of Kosovo, the Russians had insisted that independence for Kosovo would be a serious affront. Last February, the United States and the European Union, over Russia’s vehement objections, recognized an independent Kosovo.
On the abrogation of the Antiballistic Missile Treaty, and the American decision to place missile defenses in neighboring countries:(today) August 20 2008 the US and Poland announced an agreement on the siting of 10 interceptor missiles in northern Poland.
On the unending expansion of NATO: Mr. Bush has promised NATO membership and its accompanying umbrella of American military support to Georgia.
Mr. Putin, angry at what he saw as American infringement right in his backyard, decided that Georgia was the line in the sand that the West would not be allowed to cross.


The McCain connection: McCain adviser also Georgia lobbyist.
Was McCain himself involved in setting this Russian bear trap? The Georgian crisis has created a campaign issue McCain can run on. The new trumped up threats about Russia make his antic-Soviet experience "relevant" again. And John McCain and friends were busy stirring the pot.

On April 17 McCain spoke with Saakashvili by phone, a call arranged by Randy Scheunemann, his major foreign policy adviser. Scheunemann is a leading neo-conservative lobbyist for oil companies and arms manufacturer. He was until recently a registered foreign agent for Georgia, and was Director of the Committee for the Liberation of Iraq. After the conversation, McCain issued a statement, saying that “we must not allow Russia to believe it has a free hand to engage in policies that undermine Georgian sovereignty.” Later that day, Scheunemann's Orion Strategies lobbying firm signed a new $200,000 deal with Georgia.

Bush team divided
Within the Bush administration, there is discord, as “the fight between the hawks and the doves” erupted anew, according to one administration official.

The hawks: Cheney and his aides and allies including the assistant secretary of state for Europe, Daniel Fried, see Georgia as a role model for their democracy promotion campaign. They have argued for more American military aid for Georgia, including Stinger antiaircraft missiles, so that it could defend itself against possible Russian aggression.

The “doves”: Condoleezza Rice, National Security Adviser Stephen J. Hadley and William J. Burns, the new under secretary of state for political affairs, have urged restraint. They argued that such a sale would provoke Russia, which would see it as arrogant meddling in its turf, the officials and diplomats said. Ms. Rice, for the time being, has won the fight against adding American-provided Stinger missiles to Georgia’s arsenal.

Is Saakashvili a democrat?
By last November, Mr. Saakashvili’s democratic credentials were becoming checkered. Accused by the opposition of corruption, arrogance and centralization, he declared a state of emergency. He won a snap election this year on a vote that the opposition said was rigged.

The oil connection:
If Saakashvili did believe he had US support, why did he not get it? Perhaps this is where that favorite foreign policy addiction – oil – plays a role in this dispute. The United States has poured hundreds of millions of dollars in aid and military hardware, mostly to protect the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline that bypasses Russia and Iran on its way to Turkey.



Sources
U.S. Watched as a Squabble Turned Into a Showdown, Helene Cooper, C.J. Chivers, Clifford Levy, The New York Times, August 18, 2008 US troops train Georgians amid tension by Douglas Birch and Misha Dzhindzhikhashvili Associated Press, Jul 21st, 2008 | TBILISI, Georgia What Did We Expect? By Thomas Friedman, The New York Times: August 19, 2008 Russia Never Wanted a War, by Mikhael Gorbachev, The New York Times: August 19, 2008 The Battle of Tskhinvali Tour of Tskhinvali undercuts Russian claim of genocide, By Tom Lasseter | McClatchy Newspapers, Associated Press, Sunday, August 17, 2008Oil pipelines